Before Friday night, the zero in Oklahoma State's loss column looked like the last bulwark against wholesale anarchy in the BCS standings, and its inexplicable loss at Iowa State on Friday night looked like the final breach in a dam. In fact, though, it was a prelude to a new, equally predictable status quo in the wake of the bloodiest weekend in years: Barring a minor miracle on behalf of the rest of the country ? or perhaps several miracles ?�the BCS Championship Game is going to be an all-SEC West affair, and there's nothing anyone outside the conference can do about it. Is there?
Frankly, no, there almost certainly isn't. As badly as voters may want to strike down a rematch between any two of the triumvirate of SEC teams occupying the top three slots in the latest standings ? and as badly as I'd like to strike down the notion with a bit of biting, airtight rhetorical scorn ?�the fact is, the alternatives would be a much easier sell if any of the one-loss candidates sitting immediately behind LSU, Alabama and Arkansas had any momentum to speak of. The fact is, we wouldn't even be having this conversation if any of those candidates had any momentum, because it would have already lifted them into the driver's seat.
Everyone saw Arkansas lose to Alabama on Sept. 24, and Alabama lose to LSU a little over a month later. No one outside of crimson-clad 'Bama and Razorback fans is eager to retry their cases. No one really wants this.
But what choice do they have? With Oklahoma, Oregon and Clemson expelled from the race, this is the full scope of their options:
For simplicity's sake, that chart assumes an Arkansas win over LSU on Friday; if LSU wins, obviously, the Razorbacks will be off the list and the question ?�presented here as six team vying for two open slots in the title game ? will be reframed as four teams vying for one slot opposite LSU. If you'd like to indulge the fantasy that Boise State and/or Houston is relevant in this discussion, you may do so here.
So: Who ya got?
Is it going to be Virginia Tech, a 20-point loser at home to Clemson in October, sporting a marquee non-conference win over Arkansas State? The attrition in front of them has the Hokies all the way up to fourth in this week's BCS standings, ostensibly first in line for a crack at the title if two-thirds of the SEC triumvirate falls over the next two weeks. Which may be the case ? one of the benefits of playing a schedule that includes only one team ranked in the top 20 of any major poll at Thanksgiving.
But does Tech actually have an argument to pass any of the top three if they're not knocked out of the race themselves? It closes out the season against surprising Virginia, a rubber match for the ACC's Coastal Division crown, followed by (assuming a win in Charlottesville) a rematch with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game ? the same Clemson that was just ejected from the conversation itself in a lame-duck effort at N.C. State, and cold take another knock to its poll cred this weekend against South Carolina. There's a better-then-even chance the Hokies can win their way to 12-1 without a single win ? or even a single game on the schedule ?�against a team ranked in the final top 25. At the moment, they're a bit overrated as it is.
How about Stanford, then? The Cardinal have the appeal of the nation's most hyped quarterback, a win at surging USC and a chance to add another solid scalp to their collection Saturday night against Notre Dame, in primetime. Barring an extreme upset by Oregon State, though, they've already ceded the Pac-12 North to Oregon in lopsided fashion, and won't play in their own conference championship game, either.
If somehow Stanford does get its shot at the Pac-12 crown, it will be against one of three teams ? Arizona State, UCLA and Utah ?�hoping to claim the South Division this weekend with an overall record of 7-5. Again, the Cardinal's final resum� will include no more than one victim ranked in the final polls, and that only by the slimmest of margins.
Which brings us back to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have no problem with respectable wins: They've already taken down Kansas State, Baylor, Texas and Texas A&M, along with a pair of potential conference champions from the mid-major ranks, Louisiana-Lafayette and Tulsa, who have kept OSU's strength-of-schedule numbers among the best in the country. Their wins match up just fine, and they're going to look even better if the Cowboys close out the season by bagging their biggest trophy, Oklahoma. But ? and this is one of those all-consuming, all-negating buts ?they just lost to a 26.5-point underdog in their next to last game of the season, on national television. So did Oklahoma, a victim of its own absentee defense for the second time this year at Baylor. At this point, just how much can beating the Sooners erase from voters' memories?
If you're dead set against a rematch on Jan. 9, you'd better hope the answer is "a lot," because Oklahoma State appears to be the only option on the table with enough sizzle left to move back in the top two: The computers already love the schedule, and Oklahoma represents a primetime showcase for the Cowboys to present their final argument to voters on Dec. 3. If LSU wins out (thereby eliminating Arkansas) and it comes down to a question between Oklahoma State and Alabama, fresh on the heels of an impressive OSU win over its biggest rival to lock up the Big 12, maybe the impulse against a rematch will be strong enough to break the final round of voting in the Cowboys' direction.
If not, there's only one hope for fending off the inevitable: Are you ready to spend your weekend yelling "War Eagle," America?
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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