I wasn't the only one this week writing an obituary for Stanford's sudden emergence as a top-10 power, with both of the key figures in that run – head coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback Andrew Luck – likely to move on to greener pastures (figuratively and financially) in the NFL. Since putting the cap on the Cardinal's best season in 70 years with a 40-12 Orange Bowl rout over Virginia Tech on Monday night, Harbaugh has already fielded overtures from at least three teams, not including his alma mater, which happens to have a fresh vacancy with Harbaugh's name written all over it. Luck is such a sure bet to go with the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft that the owners of the pick, the Carolina Panthers, effectively put the Denver Broncos on the clock in the No. 2 slot earlier this week. The only hitch: Luck has decided to return to Stanford in the fall as a fourth-year junior, to continue his pursuit of both a Pac-12 championship and a degree in architectural design. He'll open the season as an odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and Stanford will be expected to ride his golden arm back into the top 10 – that is, assuming he fares better in his return than the last two quarterbacks who turned down a shot to be the No. 1 pick to return to school, Oklahoma's Sam Bradford in 2009 and Washington's Jake Locker last year.
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Bradford, the reigning 2008 Heisman winner, injured his shoulder in the first half of the Sooners' first game in '09, and re-injured it a month later, ultimately opting for season-ending surgery with one complete game under his belt. In his absence, Oklahoma plummeted from a national championship frontrunner to the Sun Bowl. For his part, Locker had no real championship ambitions in 2010 with the middling Huskies, but dropped from "etched in stone" as the No. 1 pick to likely the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board after a mediocre (and frequently dismal) senior campaign, which included a 41-0 home loss to Luck's Cardinal.
The real risk for Luck, though, isn't falling from the top spot. Bradford eventually went No. 1 last year to the St. Louis Rams, despite his injuries and lack of playing time, as did both Peyton and Eli Manning after returning to school for their senior seasons in 1997 and 2003, respectively. No, the real risk in waiting for Luck is the vast amount of money he stands to lose even as the No. 1 pick in 2012 as opposed to 2011. The NFL is mulling a major change in the rookie pay scale after the '11 season (assuming there is a season, with a looming labor dispute threatening to put the league on ice), which could ultimately cost Luck more than $40 million, and possibly as much as $60 million, even if he's the first player off the board next year. That is one expensive architecture degree.
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With Luck back in the pocket and Oregon coming to Palo Alto, though, Stanford is instantly a Pac-12 contender in the fall, and if it somehow keeps Harbaugh in the fold, too, there will be national buzz around the program for the first time since before World War II. That, you cannot buy.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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