Programming Note: Join the Doc at 8:30 p.m. ET for a BCS Championship live blog.This is the final countdown. Don't expect the Ducks or Tigers to be embarking on another title run any time soon: 2010 was the year for a pair of non-traditional powers that brought back two of the most veteran lineups in the country – especially along the line of scrimmage, where a whopping 14 starters and/or top backups on both sides tonight are seniors playing in their final game. That doesn't include four of the six starting linebackers, Oregon's top two receivers, three starters in Auburn's secondary or Tiger defensive tackle Nick Fairley, a likely early entrant to the draft after the game. Or, for that matter, junior quarterback Cam Newton, who's almost certainly going pro with a top-10 projection, too.
But even if Newton and star counterpart LaMicheal James (who's already said he plans to return) are back in the fall alongside talented backfield mates Michael Dyer and Darron Thomas, respectively, the upcoming attrition across the rest of both starting lineups means tonight is the night to finish the job.
Funny, you don't look like a championship defense. Statistically, Auburn's secondary is easily the worst ever to appear in a BCS title gamenot against respectable attacks. Both teams yielded at least 28 points in four different games.
There will be points ... A lot of points, although the Over/Under – down to 72 as of this afternoon – still seems a little high: Only Florida State and Virginia Tech in 1999-2000, USC and Oklahoma (mostly USC) in 2004-05, and USC and Texas in 2005-06 have eclipsed 70, and the last collision of hyped offenses ended with Florida taking a 24-14 slugfest over Oklahoma in 2008-09. But even if they get off to a slow start, both offenses are stocked with too much firepower for either of defense to hold out for long.
... and not only from the offense. Oregon's defense and special teams accounted for eight non-offensive touchdowns on this season, five by cornerback/return man Cliff Harris alone, a direct result of the Duck forcing more turnovers than all but two other teams nationally. For its part, Auburn's defense turned in three scores of its own, and set up the offense for key short-field touchdowns in the wins over South Carolina and Arkansas. The team that comes up with the unexpected return, block, muff, tipped interception or other unforeseen prize could render a lot of assumptions about the offenses and defenses moot.
Wherefore art thou, Cliff Harris? Oregon's most dynamic, big-play defender plays cornerback, where he can be easily avoided if Auburn decides doesn't want to tempt fate by throwing in Harris' general vicinity. If the Tigers are able to establish the run with Newton and a 45-pound-per-man advantage over the Ducks' defensive line, there's not a whole lot Harris can do about it.
Oregon has to deal with Nick Fairley. The Ducks, on the other hand, can't do anything, run or pass, without handling Auburn's All-America defensive tackle, Nick Fairley, the most disruptive interior line force in college football throughout the season. Oregon can't throw away from him: It has to find a way to account for and neutralize Fairley on every play. Expect some significant problems keeping Fairley off Thomas and James early on.
It's not over till it's over. I'm not saying the first to score is necessarily going to lose or anything, but there will be lead changes and momentum swings – if not a succession of them, them one big one on either side of halftime. Nothing's going to be decided in the first 25 or 30 minutes. Both teams live by the comeback, and one of them will die a slow, anguished death by it.
Auburn isn't only Cam Newton. If the game's headliners cancel each other out on the scoreboard or, heaven forbid, actually run into significant resistance from the opposing defense, Auburn's supporting cast is in a better position to pick up the slack: As complimentary backs, freshman thumper Michael Dyer and big-play blazer Onterio McCalebb can more than hold their own in their roles, and have both delivered big game and big plays in clutch situations. Still...
Cam Newton is the best player on the field. By a lot. For all the scheming and jockeying for the slightest advantage, Newton is the one player whose presence really can't be accounted for with an 'X' or 'O' on a blackboard. There is no ultimate advantage like having a force of a nature who can more or less impose his will as long he's handling the snaps cleanly. If the Ducks have any early success in slowing him down, it will not last.
Auburn wins, 34-25. As good as Oregon's been, the entire second half of the season has felt like a prelude to an Auburn championship. The Tigers ran the gauntlet in the toughest division in the country, then beat the best team in the SEC East twice, just for good measure. They've won every way there is to win. This has been the Tigers' game to lose since roughly mid-October, and if Newton has to grind out 40 carries and an epic six-minute drive at the end to go out alongside Vince Young and Tim Tebow as the MVP of a generation, I see no compelling reason he won't do so. Auburn hoists the trophy, then holds its breath that it holds up when the NCAA's done snooping around in December 2009.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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