Life On the Margins: Oregon loses its grip

Obsessing over the statistical anomalies and minutiae of close and closer-than-they-looked games that could have gone the other way.

? LSU 40, OREGON 27
The final numbers are distorted a bit by a pair of lengthy Oregon touchdown drives with the game already out of reach in the fourth quarter, distorting a dreadful offensive effort by the Ducks over the first three quarters. But LSU's offense was hardly better: At 3.9 yards per snap, the Tigers were exactly as effective on a per-play basis as Kent State was in a 48-7 loss at Alabama. Quarterback Jarrett Lee completed fewer than half of his passes, for a paltry 98 yards and a pass efficiency rating of 97.9. The Tigers only connected on one play covering more than 20 yards, and none covering more than thirty.

But they were also exceptionally good at both creating their own fortune and taking advantage of it when it was laying on the turf at their feet. Oregon turned the ball over four times, more than in any game during last year's run to the BCS title game, and LSU ball hawk Tyrann Mathieu caused and scored on a fumble by Duck punt returner Kenjon Barner for the first touchdown of the game in the second quarter. From there, all three of the LSU offense's second half touchdown drives began in Oregon territory; including a 48-yard march for a field goal in the third quarter, LSU covered about the same amount of ground to score 24 points after the break (149 yards) as Oregon did en route to 14 points (138 yards).

? HOUSTON 38, UCLA 34
If you want to get right down to it, on a possession-by-possession basis, the only difference between the Bruins and Cougars was kicking. Both teams embarked on five long, sustained touchdown drives apiece, all of them covering at 55 yards. Both punted three times. Neither began a drive in opposing territory. Both turned it over on a fumble in the other's territory. Neither threw an interception. Neither ran a kick back or recorded a safety.

But Houston did make its only field goal attempt, a 35-yard shot by Matt Hogan in the first quarter. And UCLA missed its only attempt, a 32-yarder by Kip Smith at the end of a seven-minute, 15-play march in the fourth quarter. And that (along with a blocked PAT after the Bruins' final touchdown) is your final margin.

The good news for UCLA is that there was nothing fluky about the 500-yard outburst by an offense coming off a collapse to the bottom of the Pac-10 rankings in 2010. The bad news: There was nothing fluky about the defense getting shredded to the same degree, either.

? SOUTH FLORIDA 23, NOTRE DAME 20
No secrets here: Four times the Irish drove inside the USF 10-yard-line and came away with nothing to show for it, beginning with a fumble at the goal line that was returned the length of the field for the Bulls' first touchdown. That was followed by an interception into the USF end zone, which was followed by another interception off the intended receiver's helmet inside the USF five-yard line, which was followed by a missed field goal that should have been a chip shot. In the first quarter, Notre Dame committed back-to-back facemask penalties that set up a USF field goal. Later, it flubbed a punt, leading directly to another USF field goal.

Even if the Irish had been held out of the end zone and come away with field goals on their three failed trips inside the Bull 10-yard-line, it would have represented a 16-point swing in their favor. Altogether, between the points Notre Dame lost on giveaways and the points USF earned as a direct result, they represented a 34-point swing.

On the other hand, a 2-to-1 advantage in total offense is a 2-to-1 advantage in total offense. With the exception of a dead-end second quarter that landed starter Dayne Crist on the bench in favor of sophomore Tommy Rees, the Irish moved the ball effectively and largely prevented USF from doing the same; over the course of 145 plays, they were the better team. If they can eliminate the other five ?�and maybe get a couple of them to go their way ? the basis for a big season is still there. I wouldn't put any bets on it, but it's there.

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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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