Saturday, September 17, 2011

Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSU

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Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSU

GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK
OKLAHOMA (-6�) at FLORIDA STATE ? 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

What's at stake: There's plenty of great scenery to be found on the side roads covering Florida State's bid to return to national relevance and Oklahoma's issues against decent opposition on the road ? the Sooners have dropped eight of their last ten outside of Norman against teams that ended the season in the final AP poll ?�but the main point Saturday night is this: The winner validates the hype as a frontrunner for the BCS championship and earns arguably the single most impressive win in college football during the month of September. Both teams look like legitimate national contenders.

Oklahoma wants: See last year's blowout over FSU in Norman. There, Landry Jones hit 30 of 40 passes for 380 yards and four touchdowns to four different receivers, the Sooners scored touchdowns on each of their first four possessions and the game was over before halftime. With the exception of Indiana-bound offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson and NFL-bound tailback DeMarco Murray, the OU offense is nearly identical: Jones, his top five receivers and four starting offensive linemen are all back, a year older. As always, the Sooners are going to throw it early, often and to every eligible member of the offense, and keep the pedal to the floor as long as the game is in doubt for maximum opportunities against the FSU secondary, which is only just now getting the grill marks out of its uniforms.

Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUFlorida State wants: The Seminoles dramatically improved in the secondary over the course of last season, especially after the emergence of freshman corner Xavier Rhodes, and the FSU pass rush takes a backseat to no one. Still, the best defense against Oklahoma is a good, patient offense: With the addition of freshmen James Wilder Jr. and Devonta Freeman to last year's 1,800-yard tailback trio, the 'Noles have the bodies to sustain a physical, clock-grinding game plan, and an opportunity with All-Big 12 linebacker Travis Lewis still on the shelf with a broken foot.

Constants: Oklahoma will connect for multiple big plays in the passing game. ? Florida State's offense will not keep pace in a fast-paced shootout. ... Florida State's defense will be dramatically better than it was in 2010.
Variables: Can Florida State keep Jones off the field with sustained drives? ? Can Oklahoma do enough on the ground to keep the Seminole pass rush from pinning its ears back? ? Can Greg Reid provide a spark for FSU in the return game?

The Pick: The assumption that Florida State can't keep pace with the Sooners' Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUpedal-to-the-metal philosophy in a shootout goes directly to the quarterbacks: Landry Jones is a prolific, strong-armed Heisman contender with 25 career starts under his belt, including a Big 12 Championship Game and a BCS bowl; E.J. Manuel has barely emerged from Chrisitan Ponder's oft-injured shadow. As much as he's played the last two years off the bench ? and as high as expectations are for his potential as a full-time starter ? we still know very little about Manuel on this stage, or how he'll respond when he's not getting strong support from the running game and/or defense. Oklahoma's veterans have played in a lot more of these kinds of spotlight games, which is worth at least as much as Florida State's home-field advantage and probably more if the game's still in doubt down the stretch.

And the rest?

TENNESSEE at FLORIDA (-9) ? 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Tennessee's sophomore-led passing game seems to be hitting its stride just in time to start dropping bombs on Florida's even greener secondary, and if there's a quarterback in the SEC that can reduce a team to a heap of smoldering ruins, it's Tyler Bray. The proverbial question is: Which team? As impressive as he's looked so far against Montana and Cincinnati, Bray faces a whole other animal in the first major road start of his career, a Will Muschamp-bred defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown or any play longer than 28 yards in its first two games.

Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUOf course, Florida Atlantic and UAB didn't exactly present the Gators with the kind of attack they're going to get from Bray and emerging targets Justin Hunter and Da'Rick Rogers, but Muschamp always brought disruptive heat against young passers as a defensive coordinator, and Tennessee hasn't seen anything resembling Florida's speed in the front seven yet, either.

OHIO STATE at MIAMI (-2�) ? 7:30 ET, ESPN2.
In terms of sheer attrition, the Buckeyes are in a little bit worse shape than Miami: Not only are they without Terrelle Pryor and projected starters at running back, receiver and left tackle due to the longstanding suspensions handed down last December, but they're also down their top pass rusher, Nathan Williams, who was arguably the best returning member of a defense that already lost five senior starters to the NFL the old-fashioned way. In the meantime, Miami is getting back its starting quarterback and three key senior starters on defense after just one game on ice against Maryland.

Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUUnlike Miami, though, Ohio State still knows exactly who and what it is: Jim Tressel may be gone at the top, but his entire coaching staff remains and brings in a team molded by the same conservative, run-first, defense-wins-championships blueprint that's delivered five consecutive Big Ten titles. Miami is still feeling its way under new boss Al Golden, and the first time out didn't go as planned. We know the Buckeyes are going to pound the ball and play sound defense, but we still have basically no idea what's going on with the Hurricanes. For now, the ghost of Tressel Ball is good enough to carry the day in a slugfest and on to the start of the Big Ten slate in October with all goals still intact. From there, it's anybody's guess.

MICHIGAN STATE at NOTRE DAME (-3�) ? 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUAt 0-2, Notre Dame's annual BCS hopes are basically dead in the water before they ever came up for a breath. But this does feel like the decisive moment when the Irish either start making progress or start to unravel. If it plays the way it has most of the first two weeks, minus the penchant for soul-crushing, coach-enraging turnovers, ND should be able to hit the brakes on the losing skid and guide the season back on course before it skids completely out of control. If the turnovers continue, though, the next stop is the nearest ditch.

AUBURN at CLEMSON (-3�) ? Noon ET, ABC.
Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUJust in case you haven't been keeping count, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has: Under his watch, the Tigers are 2-6 in games decided by four points or less. On the other side, Auburn is 8-0 in games decided by four points or less under Gene Chizik, including last year's second-half comeback/eventual overtime triumph against Clemson and a wild fourth-quarter comeback against Utah State two weeks ago ? and not including three other games Auburn has won over the course of its national-best 17-game winning streak in which it trailed or was tied in the fourth quarter. Until one side or the other gives me reason to doubt either trend, I'm sticking with it.

Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUUTAH at BYU (-4) ? 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2.
Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUThe "Holy War" is a non-conference clash for the first time since World War I, and non-November clash for the first time since the height of Vietnam. But stranger than that, it shapes up as a defensive struggle: BYU has managed just two offensive touchdowns in trips to Ole Miss and Texas, and the Utes managed just 14 points last week at USC after scoring a relatively measly 27 against FCS patsy Montana State in the opener. What makes the difference? A safety, of course.

TEXAS (-4) at UCLA ? 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC or ESPN.
Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUTexas fans could literally see the team rounding a corner in the second half of last week's comeback win over BYU, which left the 'Horns almost entirely dependent on freshmen and sophomores on offense ?�and kind of loving it, since the youth movement at least provides a clear direction for the team that it didn't have going into last week. If things go poorly in the Rose Bowl, that optimism could vanish in a hurry, but unless the new quarterbacks are suddenly as reckless with the ball as Gilbert was last year when the Bruins visited Austin, the senior-led defense isn't going to let that happen.

STANFORD (-9) at ARIZONA ? 10:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUWildcats: You were just shredded by one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country. What are you going to do now? They're going to get shredded by the best quarterback in the country! Arizona QB Nick Foles is no slouch himself, and may find some room for more big numbers against a less-than-intimidating Cardinal secondary. But when the local newspaper is highlighting the struggles of a starting cornerback ahead of a date with Andrew Luck, it's time to break out the marshmallows.

WASHINGTON at NEBRASKA (-17) ? 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC or ESPN.
Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUWashington quarterback Keith Price looked great last week against Hawaii, which should be a good reminder to Husky fans not to be too hard on him when yards and points prove significantly harder to come by in Lincoln. Even if All-Big Ten cornerAlfonzo Dennard doesn't play for the third week in a row, the Nebraska front seven can make Price's life miserable by taking away running back Chris Polk as the focal point of the offense.

ARIZONA STATE at ILLINOIS (-2) ? 7 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network.
Friday Morning Quarterback: Oklahoma conquers the not-so-friendly skies at FSUThe oddsmakers like the Fighting Illini at home, barely, but last week's 37-point outburst against Missouri looked like a coming-out party for the Sun Devils' towering quarterback, Brock Osweiler, who lit up the Tigers for 353 yards, three touchdowns and another score on the ground. Illinois has more experience in Mizzou in the secondary, but legitimate firepower opposite the Os-Cannon is another question entirely.

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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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