Now in its seventh year, the College Football BlogPoll is a weekly effort of dozens of college football-centric Web sites representing a wide array of schools under the oversight of SB Nation. This week, the Doc is counting down his preseason ballot, from No. 25 to No. 1. As always, schedules were strongly considered in an effort to predict the landscape at the end of the regular season: This is not a power poll.
Call me a shameless homer if you must (and this being the Internet, of course you must), but I'm not the only one who sees the alma mater on the verge of making its move after a decade-long absence from the polls. In the first place, last year's edition was on the verge, dropping four games by a grand total of 11 points with only one close win. Then there's senior quarterback Austin Davis, back to finish off the rest of Brett Favre's career passing records, along with almost everyone who touched the ball for an attack that finished in the top 15 nationally in total yards and points.
More importantly than any of that, though, there's the most manageable schedule in ages: The two toughest Conference USA games (SMU and Central Florida) are both in Hattiesburg, C-USA West frontrunners Houston and Tulsa are conspicuously absent and the toughest non-conference date is at Navy ?�for the first time ever, there is no daunting SEC road trip. If USM can't convert that into its first 10-win season since Favre's sophomore year, it's going to be another long wait.
2010 stands proudly alongside just about any season in Mississippi State history ?�nine-win campaigns with triumphs over Georgia, Florida and Michigan in a New Year's Day bowl aren't exactly annual rites here ?�and it could have been even better if close calls against BCS-bound Auburn and Arkansas hadn't gone the wrong way at the end. On paper, 2011 looks even better still, buoyed by a nearly intact offense that will count anything less than the highest-scoring season in school history as a disappointment.
But: The Bulldogs play in a division with four other teams that won at least ten games last year ?�against whom MSU was 0-4 ?�and get Georgia and South Carolina in the cross-divisional exchange. If that half of the schedule plays up to its potential, the first back-to-back nine-win seasons in school history is probably a pipe dream.
Florida is a) A young team, with b) A new head coach and completely revamped staff, that is c) Coming off arguably its worst season since the pre-Steve Spurrier era. Not exactly the formula for an instant return to glory.
It's just that the Gators are too, too talented to write off as a full-scale rebuilding job. There's hyped young potential everywhere: The defensive line alone boasts five former five-star recruits on the two-deep, three of whom ?�Ronald Powell, Shariff Floyd and Dominique Easley ?�are just coming into their own as true sophomores. The offensive skill guys are as fast as ever. (Yes, grizzled blazers Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps are still around.) Give them a more competent quarterback ?�a very real possibility under incoming offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, whether it turns out to be beleaguered senior John Brantley or mega-hyped freshman Jeff Driskel ?�and my guess is we're all lowballing the Baby Gators. Give them the Brantley we saw last year, they don't stand a chance.
The old saw says teams reflect the personality of their head coach, and you can't make a much better argument for it than Michigan State, a predictably by-the-book outfit that shares Mark Dantonio's preference for vanilla, wheat germ and the occasional bungee jump off a high bridge. This team could be any Dantonio team: The veteran pro-style quarterback under center, the between-the-tackles workhorse in the backfield, the largely anonymously but solid defense, etc. Check, check and check.
Again, the ultimate divide between this edition and the 2010 version that set a school record for wins is the schedule: Cushy home dates with Illinois and Purdue are replaced on the Big Ten slate by killer road trips to Ohio State and Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern are both on the road for the second year in a row and Notre Dame and Michigan both look like tougher outs. Short of a parade of down-to-the-wire escapes in close games, returning to the polls at all will probably require a late rally when the going gets a little lighter in November.
The Longhorns are in the same boat as Florida, counting on an influx of young, unproven talent to keep the brand above water while a new offensive coordinator tries to fix whatever's wrong with the overpriced lemon they're stuck with at quarterback. If anything, Texas may be in slightly worse shape on offense because it figures to lean so heavily on two true freshmen, running back Malcolm Brown and receiver Jaxon "It's OK If You Slip and Call Me 'Jordan'" Shipley.
But Texas does have the benefit of proven senior anchors on all three levels of the defense ? defensive tackle Kheeston Randall, linebackers Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho, safety Blake Gideon ? all of them All-Big 12 types who have played major roles on units that have led the league in total defense three years in a row. If former five-stars Alex Okafor (back at end after playing out of position at defensive tackle as a sophomore), Jackson Jeffcoat and Eddie Hicks come around, the front seven is going to be nasty enough to keep every game within reach, as long as the offense doesn't insist on giving them all away again.
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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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