The Big Picture: College football in the age of the two-year plan

Semi-regular views from 10,000 feet.

All professions venerate their elder statesmen, and for a while, college football was dominated by them. Not just metaphorically or culturally, but literally, on the field: The average national championship-winning head coach in the 1990s was 56 years old and had spent almost 14 years at the address they sent the trophy to. There was 59-year-old Don James, winning his first crown after 17 seasons at Washington. Bobby Bowden and Tom Osborne, both breaking through with multiple titles after decades of playing bridesmaid at Florida State and Nebraska. Joe Paterno turned in an undefeated season for Penn State at the age of 68 in 1994, his 29th season as the Nittany Lions' head coach. Through the entire decade, only Miami's Dennis Erickson (age 41 in 1991) and Tennessee's Phil Fulmer (48 in 1998) won rings before their 50th birthday.

That was then. A decade later, that sort of patience is creaky relic. The new reality, at the top, is that contemporary college football is no country for old men.

Actually, the story is much less about age than tenure: Most of the coaches who have won national championships since the turn of the century are still in the 50-and-over set, but almost half have done it in just their second year at their respective school. Bob Stoops took over at Oklahoma in 1999 and was hoisting the crystal ball by the end of 2000. Jim Tressel took over Ohio State in 2001 and won the championship in 2002. Urban Meyer came to Florida in 2005 and won the championship in 2006. Gene Chizik was met with derision before his first season at Auburn in 2009, and in 2010 brought the Tigers' 53-year championship drought to an end.

The ones who didn't win a title in year two got there in short order by building off the momentum of year two. Nick Saban came to LSU in 2000, led the Tigers to their first SEC championship in more than a decade in 2001 and to their first national championship in more than four decades in 2003. Pete Carroll was the fourth or fifth choice to take over a foundering ship at USC in 2001, had the Trojans in the top five by the end of 2002 and won back-to-back national titles in 2003 (AP) and 2004 (BCS). Les Miles followed Saban at LSU in 2005, took the Tigers back to the BCS in 2006 and brought back his own BCS championship in 2007. Saban touched down in Alabama in 2007, led the Tide to a 12-0 regular season in 2008 and earned his statue outside Bryant-Denny Stadium with a national championship in 2009.

Since 2000, in fact, only one coach has brought back a national championship for a school that had employed him for more than four years: Mack Brown, in his eighth season at Texas when the Longhorns upset Carroll's Trojans for the BCS crown in 2005. Every other championship boss over the last 11 years has gotten there in four years or less – and all but Nick Saban, who took four years to push LSU to the top in 2003, did it within three. They were all in BCS games in Year Two. And with the exceptions of Miles and Larry Coker, competent stewards of programs that were already on elite footing, they all started more or less from the ground up: Not one of the other eight coaches with a ring since 2000 took over an outfit that finished in the top 25 the year before his arrival.

It's not only the guys with rings. Mark Richt brought a long-awaited SEC championship to Georgia in his second season, still his best after a decade in Athens. Ralph Friedgen's first three years at Maryland were good for 31 wins and an ACC title; his last seven were good for 35 wins and bids to bowl games that didn't exist when he was hired. Louisville was seconds from an undefeated season in Bobby Petrino's second year in 2004, and playing in the Orange Bowl in his fourth. Last year, Arkansas landed its first BCS bid in Petrino's third season. Cincinnati won ten games for the first time ever in Brian Kelly's first season in 2007, eleven games in 2008 and twelve in 2009, securing back-to-back Big East championships. Paul Johnson's second season at Georgia Tech brought the end of a 19-year ACC title drought in 2009. Chip Kelly's first year at Oregon ended in the Rose Bowl; his second in the BCS Championship Game. Jim Harbaugh needed five years to take Stanford from laughingstock to No. 3 in the country. Earlier in the decade, Jeff Tedford raised Cal from 1-10 the season before his arrival to 10-1 in Year Three. Kirk Ferentz had Iowa, 1-10 his first season, in the Orange Bowl at 11-1 in his fourth. Going all the way back to 2000, Joe Tiller had once-pathetic Purdue in the Rose Bowl in his fourth season, against Washington, in its second year under Rick Neuheisel.

On the other hand, here's the list of coaches hired in the BCS era (since 1998) who have taken a team to one of the roped-off, big-money game for the first time after at least five years on the job: Mack Brown (Texas, 2004), Tommy Tuberville (Auburn, 2004), Mark Mangino (Kansas, 2007), Gary Patterson (TCU, 2009) and Randy Edsall (UConn, 2010). All except Brown were out-of-the-blue surprises, and only Brown and Patterson – both of whom were routinely delivering 10 and 11-win seasons before their long-awaited BCS breakthroughs – have been back. Coaches who win big today win fast, ahead of virtually every external timetable.

This is the point where you should forgive Florida State and Notre Dame fans for salivating. The Seminoles and the Irish have been perpetually on the brink of a return to glory for a solid decade, but they're clearly the two teams that find themselves in the sweet spot going into 2011 based on the last decade of emerging powers: They're traditional overlords that have continued to recruit well through lean years and made some strides last year under respected, first-year head coaches, Jimbo Fisher and Brian Kelly. They both ended 2010 on strong notes, return veteran lineups and sit at the cusp of a breakthrough. If I had to guess, I'd say Mississippi State is also on the verge of an historic year in its third season under Dan Mullen.

The flip side of that optimism is that the window for taking advantage of it slams shut so quickly. As a program, you are who you're going to be by the third year of a coaching administration, the fourth year at the latest, and if you're not a serious national championship contender, it's not going to happen. That's a cruel conclusion for a ruthless environment. Michigan and Miami got tired of waiting for Rich Rodriguez and Randy Shannon. West Virginia's new athletic director felt negative momentum emanating from Bill Stewart. How much patience does Nebraska have with Bo Pelini after three straight four-loss seasons? How much time does Lane Kiffin get to lift USC out of the mire of probation? How long can Mack Brown and Mark Richt – already over the hill in terms of their career arcs at Texas and Georgia – tread water weighed down by losing seasons on their previously pristine resumés?

Of course, the problem with capturing the proverbial lightning in a bottle is that you don't know what you're looking for, and can't really be certain you have it (or ever did) except in hindsight. But once you've got it, it doesn't last long.

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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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